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TOG (BUY / BT12.00)

We maintain a BUY rating on TOG with a target price of Bt12.00, implying a 2025E PER of 12x, which is positioned at -1 SD below the 5-year historical average. A recent group conference call with TOG reaffirmed our positive earnings outlook. The company targets to achieve +10-12% YoY revenue growth in 2025E (our estimate: +9% YoY), driven by the recent addition of an Rx lens production line that currently operates at 85% utilization. While an investment for the phase 1 plant in Vietnam is estimated at Bt600-800mn, the company expects to conclude its funding sources, including a potential capital increase, by May 2025E. If the company taps funds from financial institutions, the D/E ratio will increase from the current 0.8x to 1.1x, still below the 1.2x covenant. Moreover, the company’s established presence in the US market provides a solid foundation for continued growth, particularly if a potential tariff increase on Chinese imports materializes.
Our core profit estimates for 2024E and 2025E remain unchanged at Bt436mn (+2% YoY) and /478mn (+10%). We anticipate robust 4Q24E performance, potentially reaching an annual peak driven by seasonal demand and the contribution from the new production line.
TOG’s share price has tracked the SET Index over the past one and three months, likely influenced by uncertainties surrounding import policies of the Trump administration. While US orders remain substantial, the latest Rx lens production line continues to ramp up production, and the imminent phase 1 plant in Vietnam is expected to be concluded by May 2025E.

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